Togga veteran @SlyKingTails guides us through the waivers
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GW28 turned into a pretty good week for budget forwards. I’ll list a few of my favourite options in order of the amount of appeal they hold for GW29:
Troy Deeney v WBA H – it’s hard to ignore what he’s doing at the moment. Having endured a rotten campaign since the ‘cojones’ rant back in GW8, Deeney has scored over 10 points in 4 of his last 6 games. Over this period he’s been averaging 12.75 PPG. You don’t need me to tell you this is good. He plays at centre forward in a team that create chances and score goals. He’s going up against the team at the foot of the league table this weekend. He takes penalties for a team that contains shifty forwards like Richarlison and Deulofeu… who are certainly capable of being chopped down clumsily by… shall we say “less nimble” defenders like Hegazi and Dawson. Need any more reasons to consider him? I don’t.
Guido Carillo v STO H – Southampton are certainly not good at the moment. But Carrillo will get another start at home to Stoke and is fresh off a 19 point outing against Burnley. Some of his link-up play showed promise and, given the number of aerials he’s winning and the opportunities he ought to get in front of goal, you could probably do a lot worse with your third forward.
Glenn Murray / Jose Izquierdo v ARS H – Murray’s output has been incredibly goal-dependent (and even penalty-dependent) this year, but it’s hard to argue that he’s been scoring a lot of them. In theory, Arsenal are a Top 6 team are therefore not a very appealing match for a Brighton forward. But we’ve all seen what can happen to Arsenal in tricky away games before. I certainly wouldn’t rule out more of the same from Murray. He’s a low-end option this week… but his penalty-taking duties make him an interesting punt. My preferred option would be Izquierdo, however. He’s been one of the most exciting players in the league over recent weeks. In a run of form extending back to GW22, he’s been averaging 16.75 points over the last 5 games where he’s played the full 90 minutes, racking up 3 assists and 2 goals over that span. It’s not a fantastic fixture for him, admittedly, but Arsenal do have a tendency to be generous at the back (especially with the highly erratic Hector Bellerin assigned to cover him) and there will likely be fatigue/confidence issues with the Gunners in the wake of their heavy cup final defeat as well as Thursday night’s re-match with Man City.
For those of you not that excited about the weekend’s game, Izquierdo does draw some more appealing fixtures between GW30-34 with games against the less than watertight Everton, Leicester, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace defences. Other teams may have easier fixtures to close out the campaign, yes, but Brighton are playing well and look to have momentum on their side.
Here are a few I’m much less interested in this week, but may be worth stashing for upcoming weeks…
Steve Mounie v TOT A – again, the fixture lacks appeal in GW29… but if Mounie is still lurking in free agency, it’s beginning to look like he’s hitting some form. This certainly makes him interesting ahead of the Terriers’ upcoming dates with Swansea, Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Brighton and Watford. I don’t want to get too carried away with Mounie given he’s just faced two of the worst defences in the league, but he has shown the ability to put up big totals on Togga and Huddersfield look to have a bounce about them again.
Alexander Sorloth v MUN H – I’m going to quote Rotoworld’s own Chuck Booth here when I describe Sorloth as “Christian Benteke Lite”. He’s doing enough in the way of winning his aerial duels and hustling for the ball each week that his floor is a lot higher than that of most forwards. It’s certainly not an ideal fixture for him in GW29, but if he continues to average 12.5 PPG without scoring (as he has done over his first two starts), it won’t feel like the biggest risk in the world to roll him out as a desperation punt.
Dwight Gayle v LIV A – yes, he scored twice at the weekend. Perhaps more of the fantasy community should have seen that coming against an atrocious Championship-level defence like Bournemouth’s… but the point here is that Gayle won’t perform the same way every week. He pops up in a big way… and then he disappears again. In that sense, he’s your classic boom/bust forward. You may want to pick him up with the Southampton game (GW30) in mind, but I really doubt he repeats his Bournemouth antics against Liverpool in GW29.
As for the others…
The likes of Abraham, Defoe, Wood and Locadia could all go on an useful goalscoring run before the end of the season, but they’re all rotation risks and (aside from Defoe), none of them play for teams which usually score more than 1 goal a game. I wouldn’t bother stashing any of these guys as the upside just doesn’t appear to be there… at least for now. If I were incredibly desperate and you forced me to pick two of these, I’d probably go with Wood and Locadia just based on their increased likelihood of starts. The former two (Abraham, Defoe) will possibly score 20+ on one gameweek between now and the end of the season… but that’s not very useful if you’re playing a weekly head-to-head game. I see it being tricky for both Carvahal and Howe to fit these guys into the starting lineup most weeks without compromising the whole team identity.
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